Bitcoin forecast
2018 also presents a challenge to Bitcoin’s infrastructure. The difficulty that cryptocurrency platforms have to handle traffic peaks has spread a certain amount of insecurity among buyers and sellers who have witnessed how their orders took hours, if not days, to be triggered.
Tracking an exceptionally strong rally, we have opted to
assign a more or less liberal count to the trend and, in that case, we come up with counts 1, 2 and 4 which have been achieved in 2016, and a count 5 pointing to 32,814 before we reach a potential reversal point. This is the only active count under this chart resolution since the only opposing count has been negated at point A. The current chart uses a logarithmic scale with a box size of 5%and reversal set at 3 boxes (approx 15%). Should no reversal pattern be printed before the aforementioned target is hit, then a wide swath of land would emerge to 98,000 USD per Bitcoin. Internal 45º degree lines can compensate for the lack of downside targets, the first hurdle to test the bulls would come in the 4000s.
The speculative mania surrounding cryptocurrencies, most notably bitcoin, also has lifted stock prices of semiconductor manufacturers whose advanced chips are critical for mining them. The frenzied interest in bitcoin has added fuel to the movement of these stocks.
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Below is the graph of Bitcoin’s price from January 1, 2017, to December 8, 2017, at 11 UTC. The black line is the polynomial best fit trendline. The orange lines are the resistance curve connecting Wave #1, Wave #3, and Wave #5 and the projection of that curve to Wave #2. It can be seen that the price has roughly oscillated between the upper orange resistance line and the lower orange support line. The green line is the 200-day moving average, and the red line is the 50-day moving average.
All things considered, cryptocurrency experts expect bitcoin prices will continue to rise as these technologies achieve broader adoption through diverse use cases. “That will be great for legitimizing the space,” Kravets said.
That’s the main reason why the theory of Bitcoin serving as a “reserve cryptocurrency”, thus being the door to enter the cryptocurrency market as a confidence-setter, is gaining traction. Bitcoin might be just an anchor to other, more-efficient Altcoins. That would significantly improve Cryptocurrencies independence from the traditional, fiat currencies.
Bitcoin is an evolving project and the probable continuation of forks, even if they are hard or soft, will keep going. There are lots of technical challenges that need to be addressed by Bitcoin and the crypto sphere. Bitcoin’s role in the future will depend basically on how its technology evolves and improves.
Opinions expressed at FXStreet are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXStreet or its management. FXStreet has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXStreet, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXStreet will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
But the theoretical mined supply is different from the true mined supply. On the same date, there were 16,724,975 (or 79.64%) Bitcoins that had been mined. Below is the actual (blue line) and theoretical (red line) number of Bitcoins that have been mined.
Many experts, Kravets and Bromberg included, expect to see more legitimate infrastructure projects and products tailored to the cryptocurrency market in 2018, in stark contrast to this year’s publicity stunts. For example, the Long Island Iced Tea Corporation randomly added “blockchain” to its name and boosted stock prices in Q4. Bromberg said new adopters are learning how to ask more thoughtful questions about cryptocurrency and blockchain-based products. “The thing that’s most concerning to me is the signal to noise ratio,” Bromberg said.
Hackers have in Bitcoin a treasure that speaks their language, a treasure that might be theirs to seize if they take their chances. According to Kaspersky, 2018 will be the year of malware code to kidnap calculus capacity. Taking over millions of computers without permission and using them to mine cryptocurrencies might be something we hear about during next year.
Saxo predicts that the US economy begins to suffer in 2018, and the bond market begins to melt down. This results in a massive spike in interest rates, which the US government cannot afford.
The table below calculates where Bitcoin will be at the end of each year (omitting 2017) over the next 10 years. From the table, it seems that model 3 is the most realistic, and model 1 looks like a bubble.
Both Nvidia and AMD are leading producers of GPUs, whose applications are wide-ranging and growing beyond computer gaming. Among these are, according to Nvidia, uses such as big data analytics, advanced chemistry, life sciences, computer vision, machine learning, medical imaging, and weather forecasting. While the mining of bitcoin and other digital currencies also utilizes GPUs, a Morgan Stanley report cited by CNBC indicates that the digital currency ethereum may shift to a different mining technology in the next year or so.
There are groundbreaking technical updates on the way, such as the Lightning Network scaling solutions and the Deluge Network, which will allow bitcoin users to directly participate in initial coin offerings without first converting bitcoin into Ethereum-based tokens. Andy Bromberg, CEO of the ICO platform CoinList, told IBT the Lightning Network plus increased attention from regulators will both have widespread impacts across the cryptocurrency industry. Bitcoin futures, blockchain-based derivatives, already made a splash with traditional players when they debuted in early December.
In early December 2017, some hackers stole 4,700 Bitcoins from NiceHash, a cryptocurrency platform, for a value of around $80 million. This is just the last of a long list of incidents of a similar kind conducted by hackers being able to have access to cryptocurrency accounts and take big amounts of money.
There’s some more to it. With the great demand for bitcoin over the last 5 months, a large number of funds flowed into the market. The growing number of transactions have complicated the matters for crypto exchanges, which lead to withdrawal issues. More and more pieces of news are coming in, telling about cryptocurrency wallet malfunctions, while the users keep complaining about transaction glitches. All this is not the best news for bitcoin. Besides, BTC is becoming a synonym of speculation, which also makes some people shun it and turn to altcoins with less speculative hype and more growth potential backed by technologies.
Tracking an exceptionally strong rally, we have opted to assign a more or less liberal count to the trend and, in that case, we come up with counts 1, 2 and 4 which have been achieved in 2016, and a count 5 pointing to 32,814 before we reach a potential reversal point. This is the only active count under this chart resolution since the only opposing count has been negated at point A.
Having said that, I do tend to enjoy Saxo Bank’s annual “Outrageous Predictions”, if nothing else than for the sheer entertainment value. It also tends to be quite thought-provoking.
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On the other hand, 2017 has also been the year where Japan, Russia or Norway have accepted Bitcoin as a legal payment method. The European Union is also looking into it, and might tackle it in the upcoming G20 meeting, asking for more regulation on cryptocurrency use. Both Germany and France have expressed their concerns about the lack of transparency of Bitcoin transactions and the potential ability of Bitcoin to put the world economy out of balance.
But miners could stop mining Bitcoin at 90% or 97% of maximum supply if mining starts to become unprofitable. If 100% of supply is met in 2027, 90% and 97% of supply would likely be met in 2021 and 2025, respectively. This gives:
“It’s completely devolved from the original promise,” said Sebag, founder and chief executive officer of Goldmoney Inc., which oversees about $2 billion of assets. “Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general are exhibiting a mania, fueled by speculative fervor.”
He estimates that if bitcoin captures 5% of the gold market, it should achieve a fair market value of $25,000. “It’s actually the most conservative collection of elements to get to ,” he asserts, as it ignores inflation and assumes that investors will hold a smaller percentage of alternative currencies in their blended portfolios than most cryptocurrency investors currently do.
Veradittakit said bitcoin will hover around current levels and rally further once the underlying technology is upgraded in November, when the block size in the bitcoin blockchain is set to double to two megabytes, increasing transaction speed. He’s also encouraged by reports from the local exchanges Pantera invests in that cross-border transactions are increasing.
“And if personal information is our gold, bitcoin is our digital gold. So we think that the gold market, which is 9 trillion, and for a generation of investors gold was their store of value. I think this next generation of young people view bitcoin as their store of value.”
Skeptics see an end to the speculative binge, if not the first sign of a bubble starting to deflate. In any case, the caution being exercised by Nvidia and AMD in their forecasts seems wise. Once investors conclude that it's no longer a sure bet that bitcoin and other digital currencies will rise, interest in mining them is likely to wane. That would translate into decreased sales of advanced graphics processing units (GPUs).
The three models, unfortunately, do not give an end date or when Bitcoin mining becomes unprofitable and demand starts to level off or fall. I think this will happen when the miners cannot get any more rewards for mining Bitcoin and thus have to rely on transaction fees to make a profit. This would happen when the maximum mined supply of 21 million Bitcoins is reached. The network is programmed to halve the number of new Bitcoins being created about every four years. Using this supply equation, 16,361,301 (or 77.91% of the total) Bitcoins would have been mined as of December 7. Below is a table of the theoretical number and percentage of mined Bitcoins by the start of the year.
All-time highs at the time of writing this article were set at $19,811.28. A pronounced divergence in the MACD, a significant increase in the number of sellers and the huge distance between the current price and its moving averages make the chances of a potentially bearish scenario in the upcoming weeks quite notable.
The current chart uses a logarithmic scale with a box size of 5%and reversal set at 3 boxes (approx 15%). Should no reversal pattern be printed before the aforementioned target is hit, then a wide swath of land would emerge to 98,000 USD per Bitcoin.
“From a technical perspective, scalability and energy consumption will be the major challenges for Bitcoin during 2018. The greatest uncertainty over Bitcoin is the ability to cope with the number of transactions that are supposed to handle a network of its size. Right now, the number of transactions per second that are allowed by Bitcoin are 7, while Visa can handle on average 4000 (peaks of 65000), this results on an average of 10 minutes per transaction. Bitcoin development community has been trying to solve this problem and as a result, at least 6 forks have been produced in the last 3 months. Most of them with the aim to solve the scalability problem. However, none of them have managed to find a long-term solution. From our point of view, the only solution that could be a game changer is "Lightning Network" that basically adds a new layer on the top of the Blockchain and reduces the transactions to only 2, one for opening the peering channel and one to close it. On the other hand, mining is an incredibly hard task that requires a ton of energy (and then money) to be completed, as happened with scalability some forks (Bitcoin Gold) are oriented to solve this problem. However, the nature of the problem makes it difficult to find again a real solution. From our point of view, this is where AI can be an excellent associate. For example, Deepmind AI (Google) has reduced energy consumption by almost 40%. In conclusion, many technical challenges are ahead Bitcoin over 2018, a cryptocurrency that due to its longevity has some problems that others Cryptos solved from the very beginning. Our prediction is that many forks will be released over the next months until one of them will attract the majority of the community”.
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In this section, we offer for traders and investors cryptocurrency Bitcoin forecasts for today and tomorrow. In the section you will find technical analysis BTC/USD, as well as trade signals and Bitcoin recommendations, the main news for tomorrow.
I'm repeating this over & over: if you only care for efficiency, tx price & short term profits, then #bitcoin is not for you.True decentralization, censorship resistance, trustlessness, permissionlessness require time & technical commitment, therefore degrees of inefficiency.
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Bitcoin has soared by 1372.40% this year and is attracting even more attention. One cannot predict what will exactly happen to bitcoin, though, as it is not backed by anything and does not have enough historical data, so tech analysis may work in some cases and may not in others.
For you who are long term investors like myself: (those who allways make the most returns), BITCOIN is still the crypto giant. It is at a low price, and will never be cheaper. It will be ten times this price in 2018. Remember - it has the lowest circulating supply of any coin.
Most experts predict bitcoin prices will continue to rise, albeit with temporary dips, throughout the first few months of 2018. This will drive up prices across the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. “I think going into 2018 you’ll see a lot more diversification, on the part of professional investors in crypto,” Alexander Kravets, a veteran Wall Street trader turned CEO of the cryptocurrency startup XTRADE.IO, told IBT. “You’ll see less allocations in bitcoin and more allocations in alternative currencies, which is why you see a lot of run up on a lot of those. You’ll also see a lot more retail investment.”
Bitcoin, while it may be ripe for a pullback, will likely keep rising over the long run until either maximum supply is reached or when mining starts to become unprofitable. When maximum supply is reached, miners cannot get any more rewards for mining Bitcoin and thus have to rely on transaction fees to make a profit. And transaction fees can only go up so much before people stop using Bitcoin. This, for the deniers, is where the end of Bitcoin will be.
In August 2017, a group of miners of decent but non-majority proportions decided to increase the capacity of storage for each block in the Blockchain technology that rules Bitcoin. The size of such blocks is around one megabyte, but they wanted to apply a raise to enable up to 8 megabytes for each block. There was not an agreement between both parts of the community, but this group didn’t renounce and Bitcoin’s Blockchain split in two parts, resulting in the creation of Bitcoin Cash. There have been many other proposals that given birth to other Cryptocurrencies from the original Bitcoin:
There have been a few sharp dips along the way, but bitcoin's rise has been stunning, having doubled in price over the last three weeks. It is up more than 400% in the just the last two months, and up about 2,000% in the last year, according to CoinDesk. It had traded for less than $1 briefly in 2011.
Model 1: Below is a graph of Bitcoin’s price during June 30, 2013 – December 8, 2017, at 11 UTC. The green line is the 200-day moving average, and the red line is the 50-day moving average. The black line is the polynomial best fit trendline.
Futures are contracts that let investors buy or sell something at a specific price in the future. These futures are unusual in that, unlike traditional commodities such as oil or agricultural products, bitcoins aren't physical assets. And unlike traditional currencies, there isn't a central bank that backs bitcoin. They are created on computers using complex algorithms and recorded in a digital ledger.
The most probable scenario is one of a bearish move during the first weeks of the year, the time needed just for the MACD line to get closer to the signal. Once both meet, we should follow closely a “MACD fail” pattern to determine the following Bitcoin price action.
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2017 has been the year that has taken Bitcoin to phenomenon status, finally spreading across the financial board and leaving the exclusivity of the “geek”/tech universe. 2017 has been the year where those who bet on Bitcoin in the very early stages finally got rewarded with extraordinary returns their bold confidence in the main cryptocurrency. Since the start of the year, BTC/USD has surged more than 1900%! Yeah, that’s not a typo.
But was November 8 a Wave #5? It only fell to support before surging up to and above resistance. Elliot Wave theory says that after a Wave #5, the asset would make three waves down before rising again. Since the price did not do that, Bitcoin either is not following Elliot Wave theory, or Wave #5 was not November 8. Could the current peak be Wave #5?
Bitcoin (COIN) (OTCQX:GBTC) has gained a steady stream of fans and deniers. The Bitcoin fans say that the cryptocurrency is the new digital gold. Bitcoin deniers say it is in a bubble and is worthless. In my first Bitcoin article, I argued that Bitcoin has value and gave three pricing models. I update those models below, give a short-term price prediction, and compare Bitcoin to gold investment to give an estimated maximum value.
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Not everyone is so bullish. Roy Sebag, who said he first invested in bitcoin in 2011, said he sold most of his 17,000 bitcoin between May and June because he believes the long-term value will be zero.
Cryptocurrencies including bitcoin are still very volatile and thus not particularly safe, but that could change as their value rises and liquidity increases, wrote Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategists Martin Mauro, Cheryl Rowan and Matthew Trapp earlier this month. They score well when it comes to diversification, as their correlation to equities, bonds, commodities, currencies or selected measures of risk is near zero, the strategists said.
“We’re in a very healthy position right now,” said Veradittakit, vice president of Pantera Capital, which has invested in bitcoin since 2014. “There’s a lot of interest from traders and mainstream finance on the rise of all these new crytpo currencies, but when they first get exposure into the space, they’ll go into bitcoin. It has the most liquidity and biggest brand name.”
Tom Price, a Morgan Stanley equity strategist, said bitcoin compares to gold in that both offer similar benefits as a store of value, such as being fungible, durable, portable, divisible and scarce. Still, a lot of time and trust-building will be needed before it becomes clear whether bitcoin will also undermine demand for the metal, he said.
“It will have to retrace a bit more before we have enough power to break through,” Spallanzani said. He recommends buying bitcoin when it’s above $3,800 and selling when its below that level.
Josiah is a former ancient and medieval literature teacher. He has been writing about cryptocurrency since 2014, and his work has been cited in Business Insider, NPR, and Yahoo! Finance. He lives in rural North Carolina with his wife and son. Email him directly at josiah.wilmoth(at)ccn.com.
These incredible figures have inevitably tagged Bitcoin as a bubble, with some analysts even mentioning it as the potential new Armageddon that might sink the world economy into another global crisis. And while a big correction isn’t outside the realm of possibilities and the bubble mindset is indeed attached to the current Bitcoin market, BTC is far away from being a risk to the global financial system. The main cryptocurrency doesn’t have enough market cap, it is a quite compartmental market, it’s deleveraged and lacks any associated debt. That’s the current situation, and that, of course, could change. During December 2017, the first headlines about Bitcoin being used as collateral in debt transactions have begun crossing the wires.
It seems like everyone is coming up with a price forecast these days, with some of the biggest banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. jumping into the action, while speculators to long-time investors are also making their bets.
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In the first episode of Business Insider’s web segment “the bit”, Lee explained his methodology in arriving at the $25,000 number — which he says is a conservative estimate. He revealed that FundStrat values bitcoin similarly to how it would value a social network — using a principle known as Metcalfe’s law. He says that, according to Metcalfe’s law, the value of a network is the square number of its users:
Bitcoin (XBT) was trading at more than $16,000 early Monday morning, up about 8%. And bitcoin futures, which started trading Sunday on the CBOE, showed that investors are betting the cryptocurrency will continue to climb in the coming months.
December 2017 has seen the launch of the first two Bitcoin futures markets. FXStreet does offer for free the Bitcoin Future feed from Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). We still are yet to see which implications the openings of these derivative markets have on the Bitcoin price during the next months. The main one may be giving access to institutional investors. The kind of investor, such as investment funds, banks or hedge funds, among others, that could not act in a completely deregulated market as the Bitcoin spot.
Tracking an exceptionally strong rally, we have opted to
assign a more or less liberal count to the trend and, in that case, we come up with counts 1, 2 and 4 which have been achieved in 2016, and a count 5 pointing to 32,814 before we reach a potential reversal point. This is the only active count under this chart resolution since the only opposing count has been negated at point A. The current chart uses a logarithmic scale with a box size of 5%and reversal set at 3 boxes (approx 15%). Should no reversal pattern be printed before the aforementioned target is hit, then a wide swath of land would emerge to 98,000 USD per Bitcoin. Internal 45º degree lines can compensate for the lack of downside targets, the first hurdle to test the bulls would come in the 4000s.
The speculative mania surrounding cryptocurrencies, most notably bitcoin, also has lifted stock prices of semiconductor manufacturers whose advanced chips are critical for mining them. The frenzied interest in bitcoin has added fuel to the movement of these stocks.
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Below is the graph of Bitcoin’s price from January 1, 2017, to December 8, 2017, at 11 UTC. The black line is the polynomial best fit trendline. The orange lines are the resistance curve connecting Wave #1, Wave #3, and Wave #5 and the projection of that curve to Wave #2. It can be seen that the price has roughly oscillated between the upper orange resistance line and the lower orange support line. The green line is the 200-day moving average, and the red line is the 50-day moving average.
All things considered, cryptocurrency experts expect bitcoin prices will continue to rise as these technologies achieve broader adoption through diverse use cases. “That will be great for legitimizing the space,” Kravets said.
That’s the main reason why the theory of Bitcoin serving as a “reserve cryptocurrency”, thus being the door to enter the cryptocurrency market as a confidence-setter, is gaining traction. Bitcoin might be just an anchor to other, more-efficient Altcoins. That would significantly improve Cryptocurrencies independence from the traditional, fiat currencies.
Bitcoin is an evolving project and the probable continuation of forks, even if they are hard or soft, will keep going. There are lots of technical challenges that need to be addressed by Bitcoin and the crypto sphere. Bitcoin’s role in the future will depend basically on how its technology evolves and improves.
Opinions expressed at FXStreet are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXStreet or its management. FXStreet has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXStreet, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXStreet will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
But the theoretical mined supply is different from the true mined supply. On the same date, there were 16,724,975 (or 79.64%) Bitcoins that had been mined. Below is the actual (blue line) and theoretical (red line) number of Bitcoins that have been mined.
Many experts, Kravets and Bromberg included, expect to see more legitimate infrastructure projects and products tailored to the cryptocurrency market in 2018, in stark contrast to this year’s publicity stunts. For example, the Long Island Iced Tea Corporation randomly added “blockchain” to its name and boosted stock prices in Q4. Bromberg said new adopters are learning how to ask more thoughtful questions about cryptocurrency and blockchain-based products. “The thing that’s most concerning to me is the signal to noise ratio,” Bromberg said.
Hackers have in Bitcoin a treasure that speaks their language, a treasure that might be theirs to seize if they take their chances. According to Kaspersky, 2018 will be the year of malware code to kidnap calculus capacity. Taking over millions of computers without permission and using them to mine cryptocurrencies might be something we hear about during next year.
Saxo predicts that the US economy begins to suffer in 2018, and the bond market begins to melt down. This results in a massive spike in interest rates, which the US government cannot afford.
The table below calculates where Bitcoin will be at the end of each year (omitting 2017) over the next 10 years. From the table, it seems that model 3 is the most realistic, and model 1 looks like a bubble.
Both Nvidia and AMD are leading producers of GPUs, whose applications are wide-ranging and growing beyond computer gaming. Among these are, according to Nvidia, uses such as big data analytics, advanced chemistry, life sciences, computer vision, machine learning, medical imaging, and weather forecasting. While the mining of bitcoin and other digital currencies also utilizes GPUs, a Morgan Stanley report cited by CNBC indicates that the digital currency ethereum may shift to a different mining technology in the next year or so.
There are groundbreaking technical updates on the way, such as the Lightning Network scaling solutions and the Deluge Network, which will allow bitcoin users to directly participate in initial coin offerings without first converting bitcoin into Ethereum-based tokens. Andy Bromberg, CEO of the ICO platform CoinList, told IBT the Lightning Network plus increased attention from regulators will both have widespread impacts across the cryptocurrency industry. Bitcoin futures, blockchain-based derivatives, already made a splash with traditional players when they debuted in early December.
In early December 2017, some hackers stole 4,700 Bitcoins from NiceHash, a cryptocurrency platform, for a value of around $80 million. This is just the last of a long list of incidents of a similar kind conducted by hackers being able to have access to cryptocurrency accounts and take big amounts of money.
There’s some more to it. With the great demand for bitcoin over the last 5 months, a large number of funds flowed into the market. The growing number of transactions have complicated the matters for crypto exchanges, which lead to withdrawal issues. More and more pieces of news are coming in, telling about cryptocurrency wallet malfunctions, while the users keep complaining about transaction glitches. All this is not the best news for bitcoin. Besides, BTC is becoming a synonym of speculation, which also makes some people shun it and turn to altcoins with less speculative hype and more growth potential backed by technologies.
Tracking an exceptionally strong rally, we have opted to assign a more or less liberal count to the trend and, in that case, we come up with counts 1, 2 and 4 which have been achieved in 2016, and a count 5 pointing to 32,814 before we reach a potential reversal point. This is the only active count under this chart resolution since the only opposing count has been negated at point A.
Having said that, I do tend to enjoy Saxo Bank’s annual “Outrageous Predictions”, if nothing else than for the sheer entertainment value. It also tends to be quite thought-provoking.
Sponsored by Key market news. In your inbox.Every morning. Start your day right with the latest news driving global markets, from major stock movers and key economic headlines to important events on the calendar. Daily newsletter, Sunday through Friday. Privacy Policy
On the other hand, 2017 has also been the year where Japan, Russia or Norway have accepted Bitcoin as a legal payment method. The European Union is also looking into it, and might tackle it in the upcoming G20 meeting, asking for more regulation on cryptocurrency use. Both Germany and France have expressed their concerns about the lack of transparency of Bitcoin transactions and the potential ability of Bitcoin to put the world economy out of balance.
But miners could stop mining Bitcoin at 90% or 97% of maximum supply if mining starts to become unprofitable. If 100% of supply is met in 2027, 90% and 97% of supply would likely be met in 2021 and 2025, respectively. This gives:
“It’s completely devolved from the original promise,” said Sebag, founder and chief executive officer of Goldmoney Inc., which oversees about $2 billion of assets. “Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general are exhibiting a mania, fueled by speculative fervor.”
He estimates that if bitcoin captures 5% of the gold market, it should achieve a fair market value of $25,000. “It’s actually the most conservative collection of elements to get to ,” he asserts, as it ignores inflation and assumes that investors will hold a smaller percentage of alternative currencies in their blended portfolios than most cryptocurrency investors currently do.
Veradittakit said bitcoin will hover around current levels and rally further once the underlying technology is upgraded in November, when the block size in the bitcoin blockchain is set to double to two megabytes, increasing transaction speed. He’s also encouraged by reports from the local exchanges Pantera invests in that cross-border transactions are increasing.
“And if personal information is our gold, bitcoin is our digital gold. So we think that the gold market, which is 9 trillion, and for a generation of investors gold was their store of value. I think this next generation of young people view bitcoin as their store of value.”
Skeptics see an end to the speculative binge, if not the first sign of a bubble starting to deflate. In any case, the caution being exercised by Nvidia and AMD in their forecasts seems wise. Once investors conclude that it's no longer a sure bet that bitcoin and other digital currencies will rise, interest in mining them is likely to wane. That would translate into decreased sales of advanced graphics processing units (GPUs).
The three models, unfortunately, do not give an end date or when Bitcoin mining becomes unprofitable and demand starts to level off or fall. I think this will happen when the miners cannot get any more rewards for mining Bitcoin and thus have to rely on transaction fees to make a profit. This would happen when the maximum mined supply of 21 million Bitcoins is reached. The network is programmed to halve the number of new Bitcoins being created about every four years. Using this supply equation, 16,361,301 (or 77.91% of the total) Bitcoins would have been mined as of December 7. Below is a table of the theoretical number and percentage of mined Bitcoins by the start of the year.
All-time highs at the time of writing this article were set at $19,811.28. A pronounced divergence in the MACD, a significant increase in the number of sellers and the huge distance between the current price and its moving averages make the chances of a potentially bearish scenario in the upcoming weeks quite notable.
The current chart uses a logarithmic scale with a box size of 5%and reversal set at 3 boxes (approx 15%). Should no reversal pattern be printed before the aforementioned target is hit, then a wide swath of land would emerge to 98,000 USD per Bitcoin.
“From a technical perspective, scalability and energy consumption will be the major challenges for Bitcoin during 2018. The greatest uncertainty over Bitcoin is the ability to cope with the number of transactions that are supposed to handle a network of its size. Right now, the number of transactions per second that are allowed by Bitcoin are 7, while Visa can handle on average 4000 (peaks of 65000), this results on an average of 10 minutes per transaction. Bitcoin development community has been trying to solve this problem and as a result, at least 6 forks have been produced in the last 3 months. Most of them with the aim to solve the scalability problem. However, none of them have managed to find a long-term solution. From our point of view, the only solution that could be a game changer is "Lightning Network" that basically adds a new layer on the top of the Blockchain and reduces the transactions to only 2, one for opening the peering channel and one to close it. On the other hand, mining is an incredibly hard task that requires a ton of energy (and then money) to be completed, as happened with scalability some forks (Bitcoin Gold) are oriented to solve this problem. However, the nature of the problem makes it difficult to find again a real solution. From our point of view, this is where AI can be an excellent associate. For example, Deepmind AI (Google) has reduced energy consumption by almost 40%. In conclusion, many technical challenges are ahead Bitcoin over 2018, a cryptocurrency that due to its longevity has some problems that others Cryptos solved from the very beginning. Our prediction is that many forks will be released over the next months until one of them will attract the majority of the community”.
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In this section, we offer for traders and investors cryptocurrency Bitcoin forecasts for today and tomorrow. In the section you will find technical analysis BTC/USD, as well as trade signals and Bitcoin recommendations, the main news for tomorrow.
I'm repeating this over & over: if you only care for efficiency, tx price & short term profits, then #bitcoin is not for you.True decentralization, censorship resistance, trustlessness, permissionlessness require time & technical commitment, therefore degrees of inefficiency.
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Bitcoin has soared by 1372.40% this year and is attracting even more attention. One cannot predict what will exactly happen to bitcoin, though, as it is not backed by anything and does not have enough historical data, so tech analysis may work in some cases and may not in others.
For you who are long term investors like myself: (those who allways make the most returns), BITCOIN is still the crypto giant. It is at a low price, and will never be cheaper. It will be ten times this price in 2018. Remember - it has the lowest circulating supply of any coin.
Most experts predict bitcoin prices will continue to rise, albeit with temporary dips, throughout the first few months of 2018. This will drive up prices across the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. “I think going into 2018 you’ll see a lot more diversification, on the part of professional investors in crypto,” Alexander Kravets, a veteran Wall Street trader turned CEO of the cryptocurrency startup XTRADE.IO, told IBT. “You’ll see less allocations in bitcoin and more allocations in alternative currencies, which is why you see a lot of run up on a lot of those. You’ll also see a lot more retail investment.”
Bitcoin, while it may be ripe for a pullback, will likely keep rising over the long run until either maximum supply is reached or when mining starts to become unprofitable. When maximum supply is reached, miners cannot get any more rewards for mining Bitcoin and thus have to rely on transaction fees to make a profit. And transaction fees can only go up so much before people stop using Bitcoin. This, for the deniers, is where the end of Bitcoin will be.
In August 2017, a group of miners of decent but non-majority proportions decided to increase the capacity of storage for each block in the Blockchain technology that rules Bitcoin. The size of such blocks is around one megabyte, but they wanted to apply a raise to enable up to 8 megabytes for each block. There was not an agreement between both parts of the community, but this group didn’t renounce and Bitcoin’s Blockchain split in two parts, resulting in the creation of Bitcoin Cash. There have been many other proposals that given birth to other Cryptocurrencies from the original Bitcoin:
There have been a few sharp dips along the way, but bitcoin's rise has been stunning, having doubled in price over the last three weeks. It is up more than 400% in the just the last two months, and up about 2,000% in the last year, according to CoinDesk. It had traded for less than $1 briefly in 2011.
Model 1: Below is a graph of Bitcoin’s price during June 30, 2013 – December 8, 2017, at 11 UTC. The green line is the 200-day moving average, and the red line is the 50-day moving average. The black line is the polynomial best fit trendline.
Futures are contracts that let investors buy or sell something at a specific price in the future. These futures are unusual in that, unlike traditional commodities such as oil or agricultural products, bitcoins aren't physical assets. And unlike traditional currencies, there isn't a central bank that backs bitcoin. They are created on computers using complex algorithms and recorded in a digital ledger.
The most probable scenario is one of a bearish move during the first weeks of the year, the time needed just for the MACD line to get closer to the signal. Once both meet, we should follow closely a “MACD fail” pattern to determine the following Bitcoin price action.
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2017 has been the year that has taken Bitcoin to phenomenon status, finally spreading across the financial board and leaving the exclusivity of the “geek”/tech universe. 2017 has been the year where those who bet on Bitcoin in the very early stages finally got rewarded with extraordinary returns their bold confidence in the main cryptocurrency. Since the start of the year, BTC/USD has surged more than 1900%! Yeah, that’s not a typo.
But was November 8 a Wave #5? It only fell to support before surging up to and above resistance. Elliot Wave theory says that after a Wave #5, the asset would make three waves down before rising again. Since the price did not do that, Bitcoin either is not following Elliot Wave theory, or Wave #5 was not November 8. Could the current peak be Wave #5?
Bitcoin (COIN) (OTCQX:GBTC) has gained a steady stream of fans and deniers. The Bitcoin fans say that the cryptocurrency is the new digital gold. Bitcoin deniers say it is in a bubble and is worthless. In my first Bitcoin article, I argued that Bitcoin has value and gave three pricing models. I update those models below, give a short-term price prediction, and compare Bitcoin to gold investment to give an estimated maximum value.
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Not everyone is so bullish. Roy Sebag, who said he first invested in bitcoin in 2011, said he sold most of his 17,000 bitcoin between May and June because he believes the long-term value will be zero.
Cryptocurrencies including bitcoin are still very volatile and thus not particularly safe, but that could change as their value rises and liquidity increases, wrote Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategists Martin Mauro, Cheryl Rowan and Matthew Trapp earlier this month. They score well when it comes to diversification, as their correlation to equities, bonds, commodities, currencies or selected measures of risk is near zero, the strategists said.
“We’re in a very healthy position right now,” said Veradittakit, vice president of Pantera Capital, which has invested in bitcoin since 2014. “There’s a lot of interest from traders and mainstream finance on the rise of all these new crytpo currencies, but when they first get exposure into the space, they’ll go into bitcoin. It has the most liquidity and biggest brand name.”
Tom Price, a Morgan Stanley equity strategist, said bitcoin compares to gold in that both offer similar benefits as a store of value, such as being fungible, durable, portable, divisible and scarce. Still, a lot of time and trust-building will be needed before it becomes clear whether bitcoin will also undermine demand for the metal, he said.
“It will have to retrace a bit more before we have enough power to break through,” Spallanzani said. He recommends buying bitcoin when it’s above $3,800 and selling when its below that level.
Josiah is a former ancient and medieval literature teacher. He has been writing about cryptocurrency since 2014, and his work has been cited in Business Insider, NPR, and Yahoo! Finance. He lives in rural North Carolina with his wife and son. Email him directly at josiah.wilmoth(at)ccn.com.
These incredible figures have inevitably tagged Bitcoin as a bubble, with some analysts even mentioning it as the potential new Armageddon that might sink the world economy into another global crisis. And while a big correction isn’t outside the realm of possibilities and the bubble mindset is indeed attached to the current Bitcoin market, BTC is far away from being a risk to the global financial system. The main cryptocurrency doesn’t have enough market cap, it is a quite compartmental market, it’s deleveraged and lacks any associated debt. That’s the current situation, and that, of course, could change. During December 2017, the first headlines about Bitcoin being used as collateral in debt transactions have begun crossing the wires.
It seems like everyone is coming up with a price forecast these days, with some of the biggest banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. jumping into the action, while speculators to long-time investors are also making their bets.
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In the first episode of Business Insider’s web segment “the bit”, Lee explained his methodology in arriving at the $25,000 number — which he says is a conservative estimate. He revealed that FundStrat values bitcoin similarly to how it would value a social network — using a principle known as Metcalfe’s law. He says that, according to Metcalfe’s law, the value of a network is the square number of its users:
Bitcoin (XBT) was trading at more than $16,000 early Monday morning, up about 8%. And bitcoin futures, which started trading Sunday on the CBOE, showed that investors are betting the cryptocurrency will continue to climb in the coming months.
December 2017 has seen the launch of the first two Bitcoin futures markets. FXStreet does offer for free the Bitcoin Future feed from Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). We still are yet to see which implications the openings of these derivative markets have on the Bitcoin price during the next months. The main one may be giving access to institutional investors. The kind of investor, such as investment funds, banks or hedge funds, among others, that could not act in a completely deregulated market as the Bitcoin spot.
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